A former United States Ambassador to
Nigeria, John Campbell, has warned that Boko Haram terrorists will
likely regroup, becoming more radical, violent and may attack Kano and
Lagos states.
The former diplomat noted that the division in the terrorist group might not degrade its ability to launch deadly attacks.
Campbell said, “It should be anticipated
that attacks on government and Western facilities will continue but not
necessarily centred in the North-East. Instead, the two factions are
likely to carry out attacks further afield, in Kano, possibly Lagos, and
almost certainly in Cameroon and Niger. There may well be greater
cooperation with the various criminal networks that are active across
the Sahel.
“The paradox is that a
splintered Boko Haram with rival leaders may pose less of a threat to
the Nigerian state in the short term but a greater one to the broader
region and to Western individuals and interests. Up to now, (Abubakar)
Shekau’s ties to the Islamic State do not appear to have been
operationally significant, while al-Barnawi’s link with al Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb appears to have been limited to specific operations.
That could change in the future.”
According
to Campbell, if a faction of Boko Haram should fall under greater
“operational control of Islamic State or AQIM,” there is more likelihood
that it will carry out terrorist attacks beyond Nigeria “or even the
Sahel.”
This, he stated, could pose a direct threat to American interests, which are centred around Lagos and the South-South.
“Kidnapping
has been an Ansaru specialty in the past, often in cooperation with
jihadist or criminal groups based elsewhere in the Sahel. Kidnapping of
Westerners, highly lucrative, may also spike with Ansaru’s
re-emergence,” the former ambassador to Nigeria added.
The
leadership struggle between Abubakar Shekau and Abu Musab al-Barnawi,
he said, indicated that violent extremism was evolving and far from
being defeated in Nigeria.
“The focus
of the struggle against the secular state is moving away from the
occupation of specific bits of territory concentrated in the isolated
North-East towards a more general assault on non-Islamic institutions
and practices. Even if the Nigerian security services are able to
destroy Boko Haram in the short term and kill Shekau and al-Barnawi, an
extremist Islamic movement would likely soon re-emerge.
If the previous
pattern persists that each ‘cycle’ is more radical, violent, and outward
looking than its predecessor, there is also a good chance that it could
have even stronger links with jihadist movements outside Nigeria,
especially AQIM and Islamic State,” Campbell said.
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